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India's private capital expenditure (capex) pipeline surged 39 per cent year-on-year as of September 2026, but increasing concentration across a few states and sectors, larger project sizes and potential execution delays pose significant risks for lenders, according to a report by Union Bank of India.

The report highlighted that India's outstanding private capex pipeline reached ₹99.7 lakh crore in September 2026, nearly 4.1 times its March 2014 level and 39 per cent higher than a year ago. At the same time, the pipeline expanded by ₹46.4 lakh crore over the past two years, compared with an increase of just ₹7 lakh crore in the eight years to March 2022.

However, the number of projects rose by only 50 per cent to 5,311, with the average project size increasing 2.7 times to ₹1,878 crore.

Sector-wise, manufacturing and electricity accounted for the largest share of the private capex pipeline, while the services sector registered the fastest growth.

“Manufacturing (₹41.3 lakh crore) and electricity (₹32.2 lakh crore) hold 74% of the pipeline; services grew fastest, up 347%.”

Power generation, IT and IT-enabled services (ITES), metals and chemicals together accounted for 80 per cent of the pipeline, with ITES and conventional power contributing 87 per cent of the annual increase.

Notably, “Four sub-sectors hold 80% of the pipeline, and ITES and conventional power drove 87% of the year’s increase,” including — power generation, IT and IT-enabled services (ITES), metals and chemicals.

State-wise, Maharashtra accounted for 29 per cent of the pipeline, up from 9 per cent in 2014, while the top five states together held 68 per cent. Additionally, 21 state-industry combinations accounted for 59 per cent of the pipeline, highlighting the concentration of investments in a few regions and sectors.

Furthermore, “Manufacturing is concentrated in Maharashtra and Odisha and electricity in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan; services is led by Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Uttar Pradesh, and housing projects sit mainly in Maharashtra.

”The report cautioned that project announcements could outpace actual execution, as the value of planned investments rose 87 per cent over the past two years, compared with an 18 per cent increase in the number of projects. It also flagged that investment in power transmission infrastructure has lagged behind power generation, raising concerns over project implementation.

Looking ahead, “Concentration (both state wise and sector wise) and ticket size are the main risks,” it said.

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