Ferrari says the economic effects of the Pacific warming pattern could arrive 30–60 days ahead of current expectations, potentially in July or August. Most models place the strongest impact near the year’s end, but newer data points to an earlier shock that markets may not be ready for.

The concern for India is rainfall. El Niño typically reduces rain across India and Southeast Asia, while bringing flooding to South America. Disruption during key growing stages could hurt rice, sugar and palm oil supplies. Since food has a substantial weight in India’s inflation measure, shortages could put considerable pressure on household budgets.

A fresh rise in food inflation could also upset central banks’ plans for cheaper borrowing. The RBI and other monetary authorities may need to delay cuts, maintain elevated rates or potentially raise them. These are possible responses to a price shock, not announced policy decisions.

The risks extend to energy and transport. Weaker river flows could reduce hydropower output and increase dependence on costly coal or gas. Lower water levels in the Panama Canal could restrict cargo loads or lengthen shipping journeys. Ferrari identifies warming beyond 2°C by September as a warning of an exceptionally strong event.